The EU’s push to be more autonomous — particularly in strategic industries — was in vogue before the pandemic hit, thanks to a hostile administration in Washington and an increasingly assertive Beijing. But the radical changes to supply chains during the early days of the coronavirus crisis reinforced the bloc’s resolve to adapt its industrial strategy. And while relations with the U.S. have normalized somewhat since Joe Biden’s election, the EU continues to tread a fine line with China as it tries to keep global trade flowing while also protecting European companies against unfair practices. With that in mind, the European Commission will this week present an update to its industrial strategy as well as new rules granting powers to levy fines and block deals to prevent companies owned by foreign states from buying European peers. Here’s what to expect based on the drafts we’ve seen.-Viktoria Dendrinou

What’s Happening

Blinken Tour | U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to the U.K. and Ukraine this week as part of an effort to keep U.S. allies united against China and show support for a crucial ally in the face of Russian aggression. While the London visit will help lay the groundwork for Joe Biden’s meeting with G-7 leaders in June, Blinken’s travel to Kyiv comes at another delicate time for Ukraine and its supporters in the West.

Brighter Outlook | Europe’s economy is finally turning the corner after a devastating double-dip recession. The prospect of EU cash flowing as soon as July, possibly coinciding with the lifting of lockdown restrictions, means a recovery is tangible enough for ECB officials to start talking within weeks about slowing stimulus — so long as progress on jabs keeps coming.

Job Prospects | Companies are hiring and unemployment is falling across most advanced economies on hopes that vaccines will eventually contain the coronavirus. But not every job is coming back. The pandemic has pushed out older employees and is deepening inequality. Here’s a snapshot of the jobs recovery in the biggest advanced economies.

Scottish Vote | Scotland heads into an election on May 6 that’s become a pitched battle over whether the nation should get another say on its place in the U.K. after Brexit. Polls predict the pro-independence camp is on course to win big and intensify a standoff with the government in London. The problem for the integrity of the U.K. is that the demographics look increasingly stacked against it.

Vaccine Latest | After a sluggish start, the EU’s vaccination campaign accelerated in recent weeks. The bloc expects total deliveries of Covid-19 shots to hit 188 million by today. It has also clinched a deal with Pfizer-BioNTech for a further 1.8 billion doses through to 2023 and hopes to conclude negotiations with U.S. biotechnology company Novavax as soon as this week. Here’s the latest on the bloc’s vaccination push.

In Case You Missed It

Green Surge | Germany’s Greens have cemented a robust advantage in the early stages of the election campaign, according to multiple recent polls, boosting their chances of capturing the chancellery and pushing through a heavily environmentalist reform agenda. Their surge is partly down to Annalena Baerbock at the head of the party ticket, who many see as a force for renewal.

Minimum Levy | German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz reiterated his confidence that a global deal on minimum corporate taxes is possible within months, citing signals of support from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration. “I’m convinced we’ll finish up a global minimum tax on corporate profits this summer,” Scholz said. “The American administration is on board with it now.”

Bulgarian Polls | Bulgaria is headed for an election as early as July after a third and final attempt to form a coalition failed. The country’s political turmoil is deepening as the government prepares to distribute billions of euros in EU funding to overcome the coronavirus pandemic and gears up for adopting the euro in 2024.

Iran Latest | Talks on a U.S. return to the nuclear deal with Iran have a “fair distance” to go, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan indicated, after Iran said over the weekend that there’s agreement on lifting some U.S. sanctions. His comments came as world powers, led by the EU and including Russia and China, are trying to broker a U.S.-Iranian deal to revive the accord abandoned by Donald Trump in 2018.

Chart of the Day

The country with the longest history of negative interest rates just hit a milestone that may offer a glimpse of what’s to come elsewhere. In Denmark, commercial banks have had to absorb negative rates since they were first introduced by the central bank in 2012. By 2019, the industry started sharing the cost of that policy with retail depositors. Today, Danes are the world champions in bearing the burden of negative rates, and last week the government in Copenhagen decided to step in.

Today’s Agenda (All times CET.)

• 10 a.m. German Foreign Minister Maas news conference with North Macedonia counterpart after talks
• Euro-area manufacturing PMI (final)