The EU’s vow in late 2019 to become a stronger geopolitical actor was propelled in no small part by three years of global-order-busting behavior by outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump, who made Europe realize it needed to fend for itself better in an increasingly fragmented world. The return next week of a more multilateral-minded America under Joe Biden won’t turn the clock back. Rather, the bloc will hail a renewed chance to solicit Washington’s support in some strategically important matters — Iran, China and Turkey among them — while pursuing more autonomous strategies in others, including the western Balkans and Africa. Today our primer on foreign policy. 

What to Expect This Year
Iran Test | No single act better encapsulates the transatlantic meltdown Trump triggered than his withdrawal from the agreement to control Iran’s nuclear program in 2018. After causing major security and trade concerns for Europe with Iran backtracking on its commitments, EU governments could now weigh options for tackling other perceived Iranian threats in a bid to help Biden justify renewed U.S. support for the 2015 deal.

China Choices | With the EU treating China as a “cooperation partner” in some areas and a “systemic rival” in others, scope exists for closer transatlantic policy coordination vis-a-vis Beijing. This includes economic matters covered by the recent EU-China draft investment agreement and in traditional foreign-policy issues where Brussels and Washington have already created a forum for discussing growing Chinese challenges.

Turkey Tensions | The EU’s balancing act with an increasingly assertive Turkey will be tested in March, when the bloc’s leaders discuss whether to move from slap-on-the-wrist penalties over controversial Turkish energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean toward sanctions with real teeth. The planned deliberations give the bloc a chance to seek help from the Biden administration in pushing Ankara to ease regional tensions. 

Balkan Views | During the four-year Brexit drama, it was easy to forget that numerous other countries are striving to join the EU. The bloc will focus on starting accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania at long last — and on keeping alive the membership hopes of nations including Serbia and Montenegro, both of which have already begun entry talks.

Africa Aims | When it comes to deepening ties with Africa, the bloc has long done little more than pay lip service to the idea. A full-blown EU-Africa summit scheduled for 2021 is supposed to help change that by bolstering plans for a broad “partnership” covering everything from migration control and climate protection to digital development and education.

In Other News
Week-Ahead | Germany’s political future will start to take shape when Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union picks a new leader on Saturday (these are the potential successors). Next week, EU leaders will discuss introducing a vaccination certificate that would allow privileges like hassle-free travel — a proposal that gained momentum after Greece's Kyriakos Mitsotakis let the genie out of the bottle.

Debt Boost | Italy’s embattled government is pushing for an even bigger-than-expected deficit expansion. The bid by Giuseppe Conte’s team for a 32 billion-euro increase in debt, agreed by the cabinet yesterday evening, raises the stakes for the government as it fends off a political crisis. 

More Vaccines | The EU may secure an extra 50 million doses of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine. But we’re told the additional jabs would come at a much higher price. Meanwhile, the virus continued to rage in France, which expanded its curfew, while European peers like Germany are also leaning toward tougher lockdowns.

Immigration Impeachment | The woman behind Denmark’s toughest immigration laws will be the country’s first politician to defend herself in an impeachment trial in almost three decades. The move was a rare show of unity across party lines in rebuking a politician who gained notoriety under the previous government after she wrote some of the EU’s strictest immigration and asylum rules. 

Quarantine Surveillance | France’s top privacy watchdog has told police to stop using drone-mounted cameras to enforce virus lockdowns, monitor protests, stake out drug deals and chase carjackers. The ban is a victory for privacy activists who’ve been pushing back against the use of new technology to monitor the behavior of citizens and employees since the start of the pandemic.

Greening Elysées | Still in Paris, the current lack of love among locals for the “the world's most beautiful avenue” is an open secret. Now, Mayor Anne Hidalgo promises a car-free makeover for the Champs Elysées, by adding trees and taming traffic on the French capital’s iconic boulevard. Here's the plan. 

Chart of the Day

Italian Prime Minister Conte is struggling to hold onto power after a junior partner in his coalition pulled out, robbing him of his majority in parliament. The timing of the crisis could hardly be worse, with Italy battling a worsening pandemic and a recession. These are the paths Conte has to keep his job.

Today’s Agenda
All times CET.

• 3 p.m. Joint press conference by Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen