The EU could face a tech blackout of sorts because of an imminent decision from Ireland. The country’s data protection authorities will soon rule on the legality of methods used by platforms like Facebook and Google to transfer European data to the U.S. in the absence of a larger agreement between the two. If the Irish double down on a preliminary decision that declared so-called standard contractual clauses illegal, U.S.-based tech companies could lose one of the only remaining ways to ship European data across the Atlantic. Politicians may have rolled their eyes when Meta Platforms renewed a threat to pull out of Europe if there was no agreement with the EU-U.S. on data transfers, but the doomsday option can’t be dismissed.

—Jillian Deutsch and Stephanie Bodoni

What’s Happening

Shaping Sanctions | EU countries including Germany, France and Italy are pressing the bloc behind closed doors to find ways to shield their economies in the event the bloc hits Russia with sanctions, we’re told. The talks come as U.S. President Joe Biden warned the probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is “very high,” despite repeated assurances from Moscow that it has no intention to invade. Meantime, U.S. President Joe Biden will speak with Europeans leaders today about the crisis.

Africa Package | Nigeria’s president called for a new economic deal between Africa and the EU, describing the existing agreements as “one-sided and unfair.” The EU-Africa relationship must be shifted toward a “new economic arrangement based on a partnership of equals,” President Muhammadu Buhari said.

Gas Plan | The European Commission is looking at ways to build up strategic inventories of natural gas to better prepare for the next winter after limited supplies of the fuel pushed energy prices to records. The action plan due to be presented next month will include a legal requirement for member states to have a minimum level of storage by Sept. 30 of every year, according to a draft we saw. 

Carbon Prices | The EU plans to seek more granular reporting on different types of emissions derivatives to boost the transparency of its carbon market, according to a draft plan we got a peek at. Separately, France proposed that member states discuss next week the existing provisions to prevent excessive carbon price growth, as well as potential changes, in talks on overhauling the Emissions Trading System.

Belfast Shift | Sinn Fein is leading the polls ahead of critical elections to Belfast’s assembly in May after pro-U.K. unionist parties lost ground post-Brexit. The rise of Sinn Fein, a group synonymous with the sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, would reinforce a drive for reunification, a situation few might have predicted until recently.

In Case You Missed It

Inflation Tussle | Hawkish ECB board members urged the central bank to be cautious about raising interest rates. Chief Economist Philip Lane said officials should not “overreact,” while council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos warned against derailing the economy’s post-pandemic recovery. 

Zemmour Rising | Far-right candidate Eric Zemmour is within striking distance of the French presidential election runoff for the first time, the latest poll showed. Zemmour’s campaign lost steam at the start of 2022, but he has been gaining ground in recent polls. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is still the clear favorite to win.

Beijing’s Wrath | The Chinese embassy in Estonia lashed out after the Baltic nation’s spy agency issued a scathing evaluation of Beijing’s foreign policy and tactics in targeting critics. “It maliciously speculates on China’s goodwill and is completely irresponsible,” China’s embassy wrote. 

Golden Passports | Bulgaria pushed forward with a ban on so-called golden passports, which grant citizenship to people who invest as little as 1 million lev ($581,300) after repeated criticism from the European Commission. More than 100 people, mostly from Russia, China and the Middle East, have received Bulgarian citizenship under the program since 2013, when the program was introduced. 

Bailout Money | Air France-KLM is exploring new ways to raise funds to pay back a government pandemic bailout, while cautiously ramping up capacity as the latest coronavirus wave fades. The shares fell as much as 6.3% in Paris after the struggling airline laid out options to raise capital of as much as 4 billion euros. 

Chart of the Day

Supply disruptions that took a chunk out of euro-area economic growth last year may persist into 2023 because of the pandemic, posing a challenge for the ECB. The International Monetary Fund said that keeping medium-term inflation despite supply disruptions and increasing energy prices is key. While some of the most acute snags are starting to clear as caseloads ebb and many countries ease restrictions, the IMF cautioned that new mutations of the virus risk further disruptions.

Today’s Agenda
All times CET.

• 8 a.m. EU-Africa Summit in Brussels reconvenes
• 2 p.m. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and German Foreign Minister Baerbock speak at the Munich Security Conference 
• Commission President von der Leyen meets with Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki
• Economy Commissioner Gentiloni participates via videoconference in the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting