Pandemic lockdowns across many parts of the 19-nation euro area almost certainly pushed the economy into a double-dip recession. Output likely contracted by 0.8% in the first quarter, data are expected to show today, evidence of the botched start to vaccination campaigns. While coronavirus infections remain a risk to the outlook for the coming weeks, the European Central Bank is confident that growth will rebound sharply in the second half. Grants from the EU’s recovery fund will start flowing by then, providing a particular boost to countries in the south, which have been especially badly affected by the crisis. In the meantime, U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, with gross domestic product expanding at a 6.4% annualized rate as a rush of consumer spending helped bring total output to the cusp of its pre-pandemic level. - Rosskopf and Jana Randow

What’s Happening

June Gateway | Europe is pushing ahead with its plan to develop vaccine passports after the European Parliament yesterday broadly backed the measures, allowing negotiations to begin with the bloc’s member states over final details. Officials are aiming to set up a “gateway” by June that would allow vaccine certificates to be verified in different countries, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a tweet.

Recovery Deadline | EU members are supposed to hand in their recovery programs by today, and while many have already obliged — France and Germany come to mind — some are yet to let the Commission know of their plans for billions in virus cash they’ll receive. Denmark has earmarked 60% of its share for green initiatives, clearly above the required 37%.

French Opening | President Emmanuel Macron is betting an acceleration in France’s vaccination drive will offer enough relief to allow for a progressive return to normal life starting next month. With elections in just a year, and polls suggesting a tight race between Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, the president’s ability to reopen the economy is likely to play a key role in shaping his political future.

Apple Probe | The European Commission is set to escalate its antitrust probe into Apple’s App Store, triggered by a complaint from music-streaming service Spotify over rules it says unfairly hold back its business. The U.S. company is set to get a so-called statement of objections as soon as today, which raises the risk of fines or an EU order requiring it to change its approach.

In Case You Missed It

Climate Slap | Germany’s highest court ruled that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s climate-protection efforts are falling short, a stinging setback for her conservative bloc just months before national elections. The constitutional court in Karlsruhe said the government was putting future generations at risk by delaying the bulk of planned cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions to after 2030, and it has until the end of next year to specify how it plans to comply with the ruling.

Orban Relents | Hungary dropped a request to channel billions of euros from the recovery fund to finance controversial university foundations led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s allies. A dozen European Parliament members had urged the EU to block the funding, saying the outlays would be shielded from public scrutiny and vulnerable to graft.

Polish Banks | The EU’s top court yesterday published a highly anticipated ruling in Poland’s decade-long saga over foreign-currency mortgages, but it put the onus on the nation’s tribunals to resolve lawsuits over the country’s $31 billion pile of FX loans, sending bank valuations sharply higher. The ruling may help push banks toward resolving the issue by offering out-of-court settlements to borrowers.

Cyprus Divided | Rival leaders from the island of Cyprus failed to agree on how to settle nearly five decades of division, the United Nations said yesterday, after a recent deterioration in ties deepened already entrenched positions. Officials from Turkey, Greece and the U.K. joined Greek- and Turkish-speaking Cypriot politicians in Geneva for three days of talks, only to convene another meeting in the near future.

Chart of the Day

The Covid-19 pandemic had a greater economic impact on women due to their over-representation in industries hardest hit by the crisis, according to a report by Oxfam International. Globally, women lost more than 64 million jobs last year, representing a 5% loss — and exceeding 3.9% loss for men. The report found women more likely than men to drop out of the workforce or reduce hours during the pandemic, largely due to care responsibilities.

Today’s Agenda (All times CET.)

• 11 a.m. Eurostat published first-quarter euro-area GDP, April inflation, and March unemployment data
• 12 p.m. EU Council President Michel meets Angolan President Lourenço
• EU's Vestager receives Intel CEO Gelsinger