Europe will get fresh insight into its ability to bounce back from the pandemic-induced slump when the EU Commission presents its summer forecast today. Countries have avoided another large-scale lockdown since most restrictions were lifted, and policy makers have sounded confident about their baseline scenarios in recent weeks. But a lot can still go wrong — as highlighted by local outbreaks in Spain, Germany and the Balkans — showing there’s no excuse for politicians to drag their feet on recovery planning. German industrial production data this morning will provide a glimpse into how the EU’s largest economy is faring. - Alexander Weber

What’s Happening

Trade Hustle | The U.K.’s trade deal with the EU isn’t the only massive project for British negotiators post Brexit. They’re also scrambling to keep the many deals the country enjoyed as a result of its EU membership.

Spending Spree | Italy plans to expand public investment in the coming years, focusing on boosting growth rather than reining in debt as it seeks a way out of the coronavirus slump. That’s according to a blueprint seen by Bloomberg that takes into account funds from the EU’s recovery plan. 

Gas Plans | Europe’s ambitious hydrogen strategy is being watched closely for clues on where the multi-billion-euro program will put its money. Hydrogen could meet up to 24% of the world’s energy needs by 2050, and the EU commission will set out its plan for the gas this week.

Drug Talks | The EU is trying to hammer out a deal with Gilead for its drug remdesivir to combat the coronavirus. Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides is negotiating on behalf of 16 EU members, including Germany and Belgium, after a U.S. deal sparked supply concerns. 

Presidency Questions | German Environment Minister Svenja Schulze and Economy Minister Peter Altmaier will speak in the European Parliament on priorities during the country’s six-month presidency. Schulze may face questions on the green recovery, climate goals and biodiversity. 

In Case You Missed It

Macron’s Reshuffle | French President Emmanuel Macron kept Bruno Le Maire as finance minister to oversee the recovery from the pandemic after naming Jean Castex as prime minister last week as part of a government reshuffle.

Slovenian Push | The risk of a second wave of the virus makes the speedy approval of the bloc’s 750 billion-euro relief fund crucial to an economic rebound, Slovenian Finance Minister Andrej Sircelj said in an interview.

Values Play | Polish President Andrzej Duda proposed a ban on adoption by same-sex couples to “protect” traditional values. The effort is meant to help the incumbent cozy up to the far-right voters he needs to defeat Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski in Sunday’s election runoff.

Balkan Talks | The EU will host a summit aimed at restarting a dialog between Serbia and Kosovo on Sunday in Brussels, showing renewed momentum for the resolution of the Balkan dispute that’s key to their goal of joining the bloc.

Fiscal Cascade? | Germany’s stimulus is offering policy makers a real-time experiment on how much such national aid helps other countries through so-called “spillovers.” 

Chart of the Day

European governments have pumped huge sums of money into the economy to get workers through the Covid-19 crisis, and Bloomberg Economics estimates that household income was only 5% below its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter in the euro area’s four largest economies. Without furlough programs, generous unemployment benefits and support to the self-employed, it would have fallen by 13%.

Today’s Agenda

All times CET.

• 9 a.m. German Environment Minister Schulze will present her program for the country’s presidency in the European Parliament’s Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety
• 9 a.m. German Economy Minister Altmaier will set out his policy priorities before the European Parliament’s Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee
• 10 a.m. Commission releases quarterly economic forecast 
• 2 p.m. Johannes Hahn, commissioner for budget and administration, speaks at Bruegel event
• EU home affairs ministers hold informal online meeting to discuss the “European police partnership (euPP)” and “Search and Rescue at Sea”
• Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa meets Italy’s Conte in Lisbon