The European Commission is likely to suspend EU debt rules through next year as persistent lockdowns and sluggish vaccine rollouts dampen the region’s economic recovery. While the official decision isn’t due for another two months, we're told the EU's executive arm will indicate today that fiscal prudence shouldn’t be reintroduced until 2023. Crucially, the commission is expected to say that even when reinstated, the rules should include greater flexibility for countries that haven't yet recovered to their pre-pandemic levels. There's little reason to cheer though; the decision to phase out support gradually will be only be taken because things are looking so bleak for businesses and consumers.

What’s Happening
Orban's Fate |  The European People's Party is expected to approve new internal rules that could trigger the suspension of members of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz delegation. In a last-minute change, however, the EPP shied away from a plan to make expulsion easier, leaving the ball ultimately in Orban's court over whether he wants his party to remain part of the EU's largest political group.

Tesla's Hurdles | While consumers and investors around the globe have turned Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk into a global celebrity, companies in Europe — which has become the largest market for electric cars — aren’t enjoying a love affair with Tesla’s products. Here's why we aren't buying so many Teslas on this continent.

Lockdowns Expanded | Italy’s government has expanded restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of coronavirus as the country faces a surge in cases. The measures, which include a night curfew and travel restrictions between regions, are the first approved by Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s new administration.

In Case You Missed It
Turkey's Pledge | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to improve his country’s human rights record, ahead of a key EU assessment of relations with Ankara. Turkey will press the bloc to waive visa requirements for Turkish citizens and exchange information on foreign investments to try to allay EU concerns over security, money laundering and terrorism financing.

Polish Rebuke | Poland suffered a new setback over its sweeping judicial reforms, this time in a EU ruling targeting oversight of judges’ applications for jobs at the nation’s Supreme Court. The case follows a series of controversial judicial reforms in Poland that cast doubt on the rule of law in the nation and have since led to numerous challenges by the European Commission and national tribunals seeking guidance from the EU courts.

Trade Deal | Germany’s top court threw out a lawsuit by lawmakers demanding more scrutiny over participation in the CETA trade pact between the EU and Canada. Tuesday’s ruling neither bans nor clears CETA. There are still a number of complaints pending. 

Emissions Drop | Pandemic restrictions in 2020 caused the largest absolute drop in carbon-dioxide pollution from energy use since World War II. The dramatic global plunge was "the equivalent of removing all of the European Union's emissions from the global total." Trouble is, as economies recover, pollution is coming back.

Chart of the Day

Consumers in the world’s largest economies amassed $2.9 trillion in extra savings during Covid-related lockdowns, a vast cash hoard that creates the potential for a powerful recovery from the pandemic recession. Households in the U.S., China, U.K., Japan and the biggest euro-area nations socked money away when forced by the coronavirus to stay home and out of the shops, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. 

Today’s Agenda
All times CET.

• 12 p.m. EU Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis and Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni hold press conference on fiscal policy guidance
• 2:30 p.m. Sabine Weyand, the European Commission's director general for trade, speaks at EPC event
• 4 p.m. EU climate chief Frans Timmermans speaks at Bruegel event
• EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers speech at the EPP Job Conference
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets state leaders on pandemic strategy