The European Commission will vow today to give itself sweeping powers to block vaccine exports to virtually anywhere in the world. The idea behind the proposals demanding “reciprocity and proportionality” in exchange for a slice of Europe’s production is to put pressure on drugmakers and on countries who don’t play ball with the EU (hint: the U.K.). But the rules will give massive leeway to the Commission to make “qualitative decisions” about any manufacturer’s request, if it decides that deliveries to the bloc are under threat. Not all member states are happy with handing such leverage over the global vaccine supply chain to officials at the Berlaymont. The discussion among EU leaders tomorrow may be a lively one. - Nikos Chrysoloras and John Ainger

What’s Happening

Insolvency Wave | When EU leaders wrapped up 20 hours of talks around dawn on Dec. 11 by agreeing on a giant aid package for their battered economies, they didn’t head off to bed. They understood that a crucial piece of the discussion was just beginning: the potential damage to corporate balance sheets. We report on the growing fear that rolling back stimulus could cause a wave of bankruptcies.

Leaders Flummoxed | Just a few weeks after the spread of the coronavirus appeared under control, a rapid pickup in the number of cases has left Europe's leaders struggling to find answers. Nowhere is that more apparent than Germany, where a five-day lockdown over Easter is one of country’s toughest moves since the start of the pandemic. Follow the latest here.

Blinken First | The U.S. is maintaining the pressure on Germany over a new gas link to Russia, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline runs counter to the interests of the EU, and his government weighing additional sanctions to block its construction. He’ll meet Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell today.

Challenging China | China is likely to come up in those conversations. The EU’s sanctioning of Chinese officials — which was followed by other Group of Seven nations — has created some geopolitical heat. Beijing summoned EU envoy Nicolas Chapuis on Monday night, followed by the U.K.’s Caroline Wilson on Tuesday. France meanwhile did the same with China's ambassador Lu Shaye.

Economic Update | We’ll get a fresh look today at how the euro-area economy is faring amid risks from the latest bout of lockdown extensions, threatening to prolong a months-long trend of contracting output. Economists expect a Purchasing Managers’ Index for the region to point to a fifth month of waning activity, driven mainly by service-sector weakness.

In Case You Missed It

Oil Conversions | A Norwegian battery maker is giving executives from the oil, gas and aluminum industries a new lease of life, tapping their experience to gain an edge in the race to electrify cars. It’s the latest sign that oil’s veterans are going electric.

Turkish Influence | Emmanuel Macron expressed concern that Turkey will attempt to influence upcoming French elections. He didn’t elaborate on the specifics of his accusation, which comes ahead of a summit of EU leaders, whose draft joint communique points to a rapprochement with Ankara. The tone is too positive for Cyprus to accept and discussions continue today on a wording that satisfies everyone.

Debt Deluge | The EU is now three quarters of the way through the financing of its job support program, giving a taster of the debt deluge set to come later this year to finance the recovery fund. The region’s bond market has now cemented its status as a global funding force, with 500 billion euros of sales in the fastest time ever.

Spanish Warning | Still, there are more concerns about the recovery fund’s slow progress. Spain’s central bank cut its forecast for economic growth this year, saying that the turgid rollout of EU spending could hold back the economy. That echoes similar worries from the ECB earlier this week.

Global Taxes | An international deal to agree new rules on corporate taxation is within reach, according to U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer  Rishi Sunak. The hope is that an accord could end years of frustration by governments — particularly in the EU — struggling to reap revenue from large businesses able to transcend national borders.

Carbon Levy | The European Commission aims to propose in June a measure that would penalize emissions embedded in some goods brought into the region, possibly in sectors such as cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers and power, according to EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. It marks the latest efforts by the bloc to build momentum to impose a price on pollution.

Chart of the Day

Finland defended its title as the world’s happiest country through a year marked by the pandemic, with people’s trust in each other and their government proving a key factor. It’s the fourth straight success for the Nordic country in the World Happiness Report 2021, published last week by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network.

Today’s Agenda (All times CET.)

• 10 a.m. Meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in Foreign Ministers session, followed by press conference with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at 12 p.m.
• 1:05 p.m. German Chancellor Merkel takes government questions in the lower house of parliament in Berlin
• 2 p.m. EU Commission President von der Leyen, ECB President Lagarde, IMF head Georgieva and Mike Bloomberg speak at Investing in Climate Action digital event
• 5:30 p.m. Press statement by von der Leyen and Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State
• 7:30 p.m. Press statement by Blinken and EU’s Borrell
• Following college meeting: Press conference by Commissioner Dombrovskis and Commissioner Kyriakides on the export transparency and authorisation mechanism