EU trade officials are hearing a new idea from their US counterparts: draw lessons from the export-control regime they’ve been using against Russia to address issues with China. We’re told that European officials aren’t currently inclined to go down that route, even as the Biden administration has slapped new limits on its tech exports to China and is considering more. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai is in Prague, where EU trade ministers are holding an informal meeting. It’s unclear whether the topic will come up there, but export controls have been one of the more effective tools to cripple Russia’s arsenal and are seen as useful to slow down China in the global tech race. Read more about how upcoming EU-US trade talks are shaping up.  - Kevin Whitelaw

What's Happening

War Trade? | A sudden and surprising spike in European exports of washing machines, refrigerators and even electric breast pumps to Russia’s neighbors is raising concerns among officials that the trade boom may be helping Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. Read our exclusive about why this appears to be happening. 

Grain Freeze | Turkey and the UN are working to salvage the Ukraine grain export agreement after Moscow pulled out of the July pact in response to attacks on its naval fleet. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he will postpone his departure for the Arab League summit in Algeria by a day to try and negotiate a solution. The setback threatens to worsen already severe inflation and deepen a global food crisis. 

New Path | Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to break from her predecessor, Mario Draghi, as soon as today, when her government meets to reverse course on the management of the pandemic and on justice. We also learned that Italy’s new budget law will extend energy relief measures, introduce small tax cuts and reform pension payments that will require about 21 billion euros of additional borrowing.

Twitter Warning | As Elon Musk gears up to slash staff at Twitter, his other plans for the company might run into a major hurdle: the EU. Internal market commissioner Thierry Breton sent Musk an early warning. The bloc’s key weapon may be the Digital Services Act, which became law this month and gives the EU unprecedented powers to police tech platforms.

In Case You Missed It

Target Inflation | ECB President Christine Lagarde renewed her pledge to tame consumer-price growth, saying that “defeating inflation is our mantra, our mission, our mandate.” Germany, France and Italy reported record inflation readings last week, and figures due today are predicted to show an all-time inflation high of 10.3% for the entire euro zone.  

Late Summer | European proposals to set limits on the price paid for natural gas are “hypocritical,” Qatar’s energy minister Saad Al Kaabi told Bloomberg TV. Meanwhile, a spell of warm weather across northern Europe is staving off the worst of the natural gas crisis for now at a time when cold weather normally starts to bite. 

Dark Days | Finland has become the most energy-intensive economy in the EU, but with winter approaching, it’s bracing for rolling blackouts in response to Russian energy cuts. If planned outages don’t take place, a network operations manager who helps oversee the country’s grid says there would be a large-scale disruption and “people could die.” 

Belfast Vote | Northern Ireland is set for a second election this year after the biggest unionist party again prevented the region’s government from forming, amid a row over post-Brexit trade rules. The UK’s Northern Ireland Secretary Christopher Heaton-Harris said he will call an election, though declined to set a date for it.

Chart of the Day

The US currently accounts for 40% of Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports, but it will only offset a fraction of the deficit from Russia next summer, according to our colleagues at BloombergNEF. That means that while Europe has been able to plug the gap left by smaller Russian gas flows with US supplies, those shipments won’t be able to keep up as the shortfall expands.​ ​​​​​​

Today's Agenda (All times CET)

• EU trade ministers meet in Prague, with news conference expected around 2:20 p.m.
• EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager in Copenhagen
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in Argentina