Two of the EU’s traditionally neutral members, Sweden and Finland, took a further step toward NATO membership over the weekend, an historic shift brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Foreign ministers gathering in Brussels today may discuss how to help ease Turkey’s concerns to the two potential additions to the military alliance. At the other extreme, ministers will once again try to overturn Hungary’s resistance to joining an EU-wide ban on Russian oil, which diplomats are frustrated still hasn’t been resolved and continues to hold up the sixth round of sanctions. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s refusal to make a clean break with Russia has alienated erstwhile ally Poland and diplomats worry could risk the EU looking fragmented when trying to put up a united front against Putin.

— Natalia Drozdiak and John Ainger

What’s Happening

Gas Guidance | The EU is set to offer its gas importers a solution to avoid a breach of sanctions when buying fuel from Russia and still effectively satisfy President Vladimir Putin’s demands over payment in rubles. Here’s what it plans to say (and not say) to companies and member states.

Storm Warning | Renewed energy price-spikes, surging food costs and corresponding social unrest has EU officials bracing for an economic storm. The EU cut its prediction for 2022 euro-area growth to 2.7% and almost doubled its estimate for inflation, according to new draft projections due for release today. The euro, meantime, is heading for parity against the dollar for the first time in 20 years.

Green Votes | EU lawmakers are in for a busy few days of voting on the bloc’s landmark green legislation, ranging from nature-based carbon removals to how to ensure that the poorest in society are protected during the transition. Watch out today for a key vote on the carbon market, with lawmakers looking to curb investor speculation.

Tech Talks | EU and US officials will finish their second Technology and Trade Council meeting today, where they are set to announce more coordination on semiconductor subsidies, export controls and food supplies. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton told us he’s pushing for more concrete outcomes in the lead-up to the next meeting scheduled for December.

Price Caps | The EU could cap natural-gas prices to avoid “unbearably high” costs if Russia significantly limits or cuts off the flow. The Commission is set to recommend agreeing on common principles to prepare for a wider disruption and a regional or EU-wide emergency, as part of an larger plan due to be presented on Wednesday.

In Case You Missed It

Scholz Setback | Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party slumped to a second defeat in a regional ballot in a week, losing in North Rhine-Westphalia to the center-right Christian Democrats. It was a fresh blow for Scholz amid wavering support for his Ukraine policy, and potentially damaging for him personally as he traveled several times to campaign in Germany’s most populous state.

Brexit Badgering | Boris Johnson warned Brussels that the UK government will press ahead with unilateral changes to parts of the Brexit agreement if it doesn’t engage in “genuine dialogue.” In a piece for the Belfast Telegraph ahead of his crunch visit to Northern Ireland today, the prime minister said “there will be a necessity to act” if the EU refuses to reform the Northern Ireland protocol.

Methane Management | EU efforts to tackle climate-warming methane emissions are being undermined by energy companies, according to non-profit groups. They’ve sent a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron calling for the bloc to not bow to temptations to reduce ambition in curtailing one of the most harmful greenhouse gases.

Green Standards | EU lawmakers have abandoned plans to exclude nuclear and gas power from the green bond standard regulation, amid widespread opposition. It means there won’t be a vote for any amendments today that would separate the standard from the bloc’s green rulebook known as the Taxonomy. A vote on whether the two controversial energy sources are included in that is expected before the summer.

Boat Race | In the race to seize assets tied to sanctioned Russian billionaires, US authorities are alleging that a Russian tycoon acted as the “straw owner” of two yachts worth more than $1 billion, including the $700 million Scheherazade, a superyacht linked to Putin.

Chart of the Day

The ECB will raise interest rates three times this year in a bid to quell inflation, according to economists polled by Bloomberg who’re aligning their views with an increased sense of urgency among policy makers. The Governing Council is set to lift the deposit rate by a quarter-point in July, September and December, taking it to 0.25% by year-end, the survey showed. The main refinancing operations rate will be hiked in September and December, taking it to 0.5% from zero now.

Today’s Agenda
All times CET.

• 11 a.m.  Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni holds a news conference alongside the bloc’s economic forecasts
• 12 p.m. Council President Charles Michel meets France’s Macron
• 3:45 p.m. EU-US Trade and Technology Council meeting in Paris with news conference
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell participates in the EU-Canada Joint Ministerial Committee
• Economic committee of European Parliament votes on European green bonds regulation, alongside a number of Fit for 55 votes in the environment committee
• European Parliament’s trade committee votes on lifting all import duties on Ukrainian products
• Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Washington to meet President Joe Biden
• Parliaments in Finland and Sweden debate NATO accession