As the migrant crisis at the EU’s eastern edge risks turning increasingly deadly, with temperatures dropping below zero, the bloc is working on more sanctions against Belarus. That’s after Polish troops used tear gas to prevent migrants ushered to the two countries’ frontier from storming a barbed-wire fence. Now, thousands of people from the Middle East are stuck in the forests. An EU working group has agreed to broaden the scope of the current sanctions regime to include persons and entities supporting illegal border crossings, an official told us. Adoption of the new framework will likely happen on Nov. 25. The EU is also monitoring flights to Belarus from more than two dozen countries, including from Morocco, Syria, Iran, Azerbaijan, Algeria and elsewhere, as it contemplates possible sanctions against airlines involved in shuttling migrants to Minsk. Here’s our backgrounder on the migrant and humanitarian crisis.
(Editor’s note: The Brussels newsletter won’t appear this Thursday and Friday due to the holiday in Belgium. Normal service will resume on Monday, Nov. 15th)
— John Follain
What’s Happening
Brexit Returns | With tensions over Northern Ireland flaring, the EU is preparing to retaliate if the U.K. decides to suspend parts of the post-Brexit trade accord. Options for the EU run from legal arbitration to increasing border checks and even suspending the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, officials tell us. The EU’s Brexit negotiator, Maros Sefcovic, will brief European ambassadors today on the status of talks with London.
Finance Rules | British regulators will be granted greater flexibility to update laws inherited from the EU, as part of the U.K. government’s push to overhaul the financial industry following Brexit. The Treasury’s Financial Services Future Regulatory Framework Review proposes giving the Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority the powers to replace EU rules with ones that are more closely tailored to the U.K. market.
Google Fine | The EU’s General Court will rule on whether the Commission was right four years ago to find Google abused its market power by squeezing smaller shopping-search services. A victory for Google could impact the EU’s crusade against big tech; a loss may make other Silicon Valley giants rethink how hard they fight enforcers. The 2.4 billion-euro fine was a record at the time and was derided by a judge as mere loose change for a company now valued at $2 trillion.
Digital Giants | EU countries are on track to beat the Parliament by agreeing on new rules to combat anti-competitive behavior from big tech companies, two EU officials said. EU ambassadors will today approve a deal on the Digital Markets Act, according to an agreement we’ve seen, before it gets official sign-off later this month at a Competitiveness Council. The Parliament, meanwhile, hopes to reach an agreement by the end of the year.
Force Label | The name of the EU’s planned 5,000-strong military force just got more clunky. Today’s College meeting will discuss the Strategic Compass proposals on foreign and military policy, with the latest draft we’ve seen referring to an EU Rapid Deployment Capacity. An earlier version of the document called it an EU Intervention Force.
In Case You Missed It
COP26 Promises | New net-zero pledges have created some hope at the COP26 summit for avoiding climate catastrophe, a new analysis says. Still, the worst outcomes remain possible if countries don’t deliver on their promises. Researchers agree that emissions must be cut in half by the end of the decade from 2010 levels to be on track to reach the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°Celsius from pre-industrial times.
Euro-area Inflation | The ECB should avoid tying itself to rigid long-term policy promises in case euro-area inflation suddenly looks set to outpace expectations, according to Governing Council member Klaas Knot. “We cannot make long-lasting unconditional commitments that might end up being incompatible with how the inflation outlook develops,” he told a conference.
Digital Tender | Digital currencies planned by major central banks will probably become legal tender in their jurisdictions, according to officials studying such initiatives. That outcome is “likely” in the euro area, ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta told a panel.
Green Bonds | The EU’s “gold standard” rules for green bonds are starting to be used by the market even before the bloc has approved them. Swedish property company Dios Fastigheter will today present its new green financing framework to investors, which it says is aligned to the EU’s proposed green bond standard. Once approved, which may take up to two years, it would require issuers to abide by an array of rules if they wish to call their debt “European green bonds.”
Gas Slide | European natural gas prices slipped on signs Russia may be starting to gradually deliver the boost in supplies President Vladimir Putin has promised. Gazprom has approved a plan to refill its European storage sites this month and, according to the Ukrainian gas grid operator, booked some of the additional pipeline capacity offered at an auction for shipments into Slovakia.
Greek Outburst | Kyriakos Mitsotakis got into a public fight at a news conference in Athens about conditions at the refugee camp on the island of Samos. The usually soft-spoken Greek prime minister lost his cool when a Dutch journalist accused him of “lying” about what happens to illegal migrants. “What I won’t accept is that in this office you will insult me or the Greek people with accusations and expressions that aren’t supported by material facts,” he snapped.
Romania Talks | Romania’s two biggest parties will set aside seven years of bitter conflict and start coalition talks as the nation struggles to fight the pandemic. The ruling Liberal Party will negotiate with the Social Democratic Party, which controls the most seats in parliament, and seek to reach a deal for a new government this month, ending a two-month political deadlock caused by the collapse of the Liberal-led coalition.
Chart of the Day
The Commission is planning to ban payment for order flow, paralleling potential U.S. moves to stem a practice that hit the headlines during the meme-stock mania. A forthcoming review of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive will include a ban amid other measures to increase transparency, such as a consolidated tape of information about transactions, people familiar with the matter told us.
Today’s Agenda
All times CET.
- 11 a.m. Weekly College meeting, discusses Strategic Compass military/security plan, followed by news conference
- 11 a.m. EU's General Court rules in Google case
- 3 p.m. European Council President Michel gives speech at the Paris Peace Forum, followed by dinner at 8.30 p.m. hosted by President Macron; Michel earlier visits Warsaw, meets Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki
- Commission President von der Leyen in Washington, meets President Biden
- Commissioner Breton delivers speech on sidelines of COP26