Russia’s latest escalation against Ukraine is set to dominate the agenda in Berlin tomorrow when foreign ministers from the Group of Seven gather. They’ll likely discuss Moscow’s suspension of the Ukraine grain-export deal, with the UN suspending shipments after Russia warned vessels weren’t safe in the Black Sea corridor. They’ll also address Moscow’s stepped-up attacks on water and power supplies. The G-7 is still working to bring other nations on board with its plan to cap Russian oil prices, even as the US is scaling back the scheme and trying to offer clarity about the plan to oil traders. Ministers may also bring up Iran, with Germany weighing more sanctions after violent crackdowns on protesters.

— Natalia Drozdiak

What's Happening

Kyiv Support | Emmanuel Macron pledged more military support for Ukraine in the form of air defense on a call with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy yesterday. They also agreed to organize an international conference in Paris on Dec. 13 to assist the rebuilding of Ukraine’s energy system after Russian attacks.  EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson also called for urgent assistance during a trip to Kyiv yesterday. 

Mink Vote | Denmark’s Social Democratic Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was unexpectedly set to win a majority in a nail-biter general election, putting her on track to secure another four-year term at the helm of the Nordic country. Frederiksen and her allies in the left-leaning red bloc won 87 seats as all votes had been tallied, after early polling indicated she would falter. 

Energy Windfall | The German government plans to collect windfall profits from electricity companies despite legal uncertainties about the proposal, according to a government paper we saw. Meanwhile, Europe is set for a mild November according to forecasters Maxar Technologies and Marex, which will ease pressure on natural-gas storage.

New ‘Casablanca’ | Belgrade turned into a haven for Russians after the invasion of Ukraine, but now more people are arriving and driving demand for property and work spaces. New arrivals have registered more than 2,000 businesses and more Russians are looking to settle for the longer term after Vladimir Putin’s military mobilization of citizens. 

In Case You Missed It

Nuclear Nordics | Finland and Sweden said they aren’t ruling out hosting NATO bases or nuclear weapons when they join the defense alliance, though no proposal has been made. Meanwhile, ahead of a visit by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, Turkey says it’s still not satisfied with Sweden’s pledges to crack down on Kurdish separatists and won’t lift objections unless more is done.

Inflation Target | ECB President Christine Lagarde said the peak of the current cycle of interest-rate increases must ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target over the medium term. Lagarde said the likelihood of a recession has increased but warned of the dangers of not stepping in to tame inflation.

Fossil Fueled | G-20 nations spent $693 billion supporting the fossil fuel industry last year, slowing progress towards global climate goals, according to a report released by Bloomberg Philanthropies and BloombergNEF yesterday.

Affordable Paris | If you want to build affordable housing in the heart of Paris, you need to make it chic. To answer NIMBY critics, this social housing project by Jean-Christophe Quinton Architecte needed to be stylish enough to fit into the affluent 6th arrondissement.

Chart of the Day

Ukraine crop exports are reaping one short-term benefit as Russia suspended its role in the Black Sea grain deal: The pace of cargoes cleared to head abroad has soared, helping to ease a pileup of vessels. Some 46 outbound vessels passed inspection in Istanbul on Monday, up more than tenfold from the average for the rest of the month, according to data posted by the United Nations. 

Today's Agenda

• EU Vice President Vera Jourova and others speak at Future of the Internet event
• Annual Web Summit conference in Lisbon