Fresh off her second trip to Kyiv since Russia’s invasion, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is trying to push Ukraine’s EU membership bid along without glossing over the significant obstacles. Noting the country has made progress, she told the small group of reporters who traveled with her to Kyiv, including Bloomberg, that “much still needs to be done.” She toured a city where life and activity is reviving despite sandbags and barricades. She went as far as she could in hinting that the Commission’s opinion — which will come Friday — will likely be positive, as we reported last week. But the final signoff from her commissioners is still pending. Von der Leyen’s cautious tone reflects continued resistance to Ukraine’s application in half a dozen countries, including the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden. For some, reaching consensus at the EU leaders’ summit June 23-24 will depend on what conditions are attached. Von der Leyen’s remarks made clear she was thinking about the bloc’s place in history: “I hope in 20 years when we are looking back, we can say we did the right thing.” - Jorge Valero and Kevin Whitelaw

What’s Happening

Brexit Rumble | The UK is expected to ignite a new battle with the EU by offering legislation today to unilaterally scrap parts of the Brexit deal it agreed to less than three years ago. Brandon Lewis, the UK secretary for Northern Ireland, insisted that rewriting the Protocol governing trade is “within the law,” but Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney suggested UK Foreign Minister Liz Truss was just gunning for Boris Johnson’s job.

At Risk | President Emmanuel Macron may lose his outright majority in the National Assembly following the first round of voting in France's parliamentary election yesterday. If Macron and his allies fail to get at least 289 lawmakers in the second round next week, it could curtail his ability to push through policy priorities including raising the retirement age.

French Surge | France’s financial sector is now the most popular destination in Europe for US backers, helping the country narrow the gap with the UK for foreign direct investment in the industry. France overtook Germany for second place in 2020, when activity dropped across much of the region due to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Baltic Path | Kaja Kallas is poised to form a new coalition government, likely ending a political crisis as Estonia confronts its biggest security test in decades. She’s in a position to form a government after the conservative Pro Patria party decided to seek an alliance with her ruling Reform Party and the Estonian Social Democrats.

In Case You Missed It

Alliance Watch | NATO is in close contact with Finland, Sweden and Turkey to address “legitimate Turkish concerns” about terrorism and to move forward with the accession of the two Nordic countries, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday. The June summit was “never a deadline,” he added, but said, “I would like to see this solved as soon as possible.”

Recession Watch | Statistical quirks, including an extra bank holiday for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee, means the UK may avoid two consecutive quarters of contraction, but almost every other economic metric is screaming recession. Consumer confidence is already below levels seen in any economic downturn since at least the 1970s, even before the full effects of the fastest inflation in decades kicks in.

Chip Plant | GlobalFoundries and STMicroelectronics are planning to build a semiconductor factory in France, we’re told. They want to take advantage of state aid that could be available thanks to the Chips Act.  

Qatar Stake | TotalEnergies became the first foreign company to win a stake in a multi-billion dollar project to boost Qatar’s gas exports. The country is expanding production of LNG amid a worldwide energy crunch as Europe tries to wean itself off Russian gas.

Solar Venture | A Dutch company is starting deliveries of the world’s first production-ready solar car to customers later this year, promising months of charge-less driving in summer conditions. Lightyear, founded in the Netherlands in 2016, is making 949 of the models featuring curved solar panels across the car’s hood and roof.

Chart of the Day

Markets aren’t convinced the ECB can lift interest rates and keep the bond yields of the euro area’s most-indebted members in check at the same time. Italy, which is vulnerable to rising borrowing costs, saw its 10-year debt post the biggest slide since the pandemic as ECB President Christine Lagarde outlined plans last week for a first rate hike in more than a decade. The spread over German bonds, meanwhile, edged toward levels that last prompted the ECB to start buying sovereign debt in an effort to stabilize the currency bloc as Covid swept across the continent.

Today’s Agenda (All times CET.)

• 9:30 a.m. Von der Leyen delivers video message to European Family Business Summit
• 2:40 p.m. Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn, EIB President Werner Hoyer and ESM chief Klaus Regling speak at Capital Markets Seminar
• 3:10 p.m. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg in Sweden holds news conference with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson
• 8 p.m. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Slovakian Premier Eduard Heger hold joint news conference after talks in Berlin
• Von der Leyen visits Israel, meets with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid
• WTO ministerial conference in Geneva
• EU-Indo-Pacific high-level meeting in Prague
• Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson in Lithuania to meet President Gitanas Nauseda and Energy Minister Dainius Kreivys, speaks at Baltic Gas Conference