The European Commission is likely today to confirm what banks and forecasters have been saying for a while: Europe’s economy is poised to come roaring back from the pandemic as the vaccine rollout paves the way for reopening across the region. That’s bringing with it a host of bets that inflation will spike higher, with European Central Bank executive-board member Isabel Schnabel predicting that long-dormant price rises could accelerate to more than 3%, albeit briefly. If you own technology stocks, that’s not such a good thing — but with a double-dip slump moving into the rear-view mirror and the region’s economies also about to get a much-needed boost from the EU’s recovery fund, it might just be time to get the vaccine and enjoy the reopening of bars and restaurants wherever you are. After all, it’s been a long winter. - John Ainger

What’s Happening

Curbing Pollution | The Commission will also today unveil a strategy to accelerate pollution cuts in sectors like industry and agriculture. The goal is to eliminate all harmful contamination by 2050, reducing pollution to levels that no longer damage health or natural ecosystems, according to documents we’ve seen.

Taxing Amazon | The EU’s lower court will today give two key rulings for Antitrust Commissioner Margrethe Vestager’s crackdown on selective fiscal deals for companies. She was served a crushing blow by the court last July, when it toppled the record 13 billion-euro Irish tax bill for Apple, and another setback in the payback of 250 million euros for Amazon and 120 million euros for Engie could be decisive for pending probes.

ECB Dilemma | One way out of the ECB’s dilemma about whether or not to slow its pandemic support program next quarter leads down a path policy makers have followed ever since quantitative easing started in 2015: taking advantage of the summer market lull. Here’s the full story. 

Anti-Graft Crusader | In her homeland of Romania, Laura Codruta Kovesi ignited an unprecedented anti-corruption drive that landed the country’s most powerful politician in jail. As she gears up to head the first EU-wide prosecutors’ office, she’s targeting as much as 60 billion euros that she estimates the bloc’s budget loses each year to fraud. Read our interview with her here.

Fish Spat | Negotiations on access for French fishermen to waters around Jersey will continue after the British island postponed new licensing rules and France lifted a ban on vessels from the Channel Islands landing catches at its ports. The U.K. and French navies were last week drawn into the increasingly bitter dispute over post-Brexit fishing rights, after dozens of French boats mounted a protest near Jersey’s main harbor.

In Case You Missed It

Civil War | Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said France is at risk of a “civil war” as she prepares to tackle Emmanuel Macron in the 2022 presidential election. It comes after a group of retired generals last month hinted at the threat of a military uprising, while another open letter to the president on Sunday — attributed to unidentified serving officers — warned of “chaos and violence.”

Fund Delay | The EU recovery fund still hasn’t cleared all the hurdles it needs to in order to start the flow of money to states. Bickering in the bloc’s most politically volatile member state, Romania — where a two-thirds majority is required to pass the legislation in parliament — is threatening to delay the 800 billion-euro package.

Greek Drive | Meanwhile, Greece is forging ahead with its program even before initial EU funding arrives, according to Finance Minster Christos Staikouras. “We are among the first countries to submit our program and we’ve already started to implement some of the reforms and investments,” Staikouras told us in an interview in Athens.

Greening Germany | German industry will need to swiftly implement a “massive” reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions to conform with targets in the ruling coalition’s new climate protection law, according to a draft of the ruling coalition’s updated climate law. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government last week pledged to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, five years earlier than its previous goal and the shortest timeline among major economies.

Secretive Bank | In the mythology of private banking, Banque Pictet stands apart. Over the course of more than two centuries, the Swiss institution has discreetly tended to the assets of the very rich, led by a small crop of partners who form the most exclusive men-only club anywhere outside the Vatican. But now, key employees are leaving. Here’s why.

Chart of the Day

Inheritance tax could make a return to the political agenda after decades of declining use as governments try to repair public finances and address widening inequality after the pandemic. Levies on inherited wealth dropped sharply in the 1970s, and now account for only 0.5% of tax revenues in countries where they are still used, the OECD said in a report published Tuesday.

Today’s Agenda (All times CET.)

• 11 a.m. EU lower court to rule on challenges by Amazon and Luxembourg against a 250 million-euro tax bill
• 11 a.m. EU second-highest court to rule on challenge by French energy utility Engie and Luxembourg against a 120 million-euro bill over an allegedly unfair fiscal arrangement
• 11 a.m. European Commission publishes quarterly economic forecast
• U.S. Climate Envoy Kerry, ECB's Stournaras, Enria speak at Delphi Economic Forum