EU government envoys in Brussels will seek a common position today on "digital green certificates" to ease travel for those vaccinated or recently recovered from the coronavirus. Assuming a deal is reached on the latest draft, negotiations can begin with EU lawmakers to hopefully have final legal texts ready by early May. All of this would be great news for anyone hoping to go on a much-needed summer vacation, especially given yesterday's setback with the Johnson & Johnson shot casting more doubt over the timeframe for vaccinations. It's the same rare blood-clot scare that's already limited the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in several member states. Until there's clarity on the pace of inoculations, the only ones who will have the luxury of arguing over holiday rules will be EU diplomats in Brussels. The rest of us will have to wait. - Nikos Chrysoloras andViktoria Dendrinou

What’s Happening

EU Bills | The European Commission will unveil plans today to raise up to 806 billion euros in debt to finance the EU's stimulus program until 2026. We have the draft, which includes the issuance of some 250 billion euros in Green debt and the introduction of short-term "EU bills" in the latest push by Brussels to create a safe asset to rival mighty U.S. treasuries.

Merkel Succession | The battle to claim the mantel of Angela Merkel’s successor is going down to the wire with the two contenders exchanging increasingly barbed attacks that have alarmed senior officials from their bloc. Both said the matter must be settled by Friday.

AI Rules | The EU is poised to ban artificial intelligence systems used for mass surveillance or for ranking social behavior, while companies developing AI could face fines as high as 4% of global revenue if they fail to comply with new rules governing the software applications. The legislation from the commission will be unveiled as soon as next week.

Brexit Costs | Breaking free of Brussels bureaucracy was meant to bring a red-tape bonfire for Britain. In the first 100 days of Brexit, the only thing many businesses burned was money. Customs checks, paperwork and border delays since the U.K. left the EU at the start of the year are sucking cash and time out of companies, from big-name retailers to small family owned businesses.

Ryanair Appeals | Low-cost carrier Ryanair has filed more than a dozen court appeals against EU approvals of state bailouts for covid-hit airlines, saying some 30 billion euros of state cash for selected airlines is unfair. After losing its first two appeals in February, Ryanair will today find out the court's verdict in three more challenges involving SAS and Finnair, though the most closely watched will be Ryanair's attack on EU approval for Lufthansa, which got 6 billion euros from Germany last year.

War Talk | The war of words between Russia and Ukraine is reaching alarming levels amid a troop buildup on their shared border. Ukraine's foreign minister said his country would never be part of the "Russian world" and called for more NATO support. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are at the alliance's Brussels headquarters today to discuss how to prevent further escalation.

In Case You Missed It

German Curbs | Angela Merkel said nationwide rules to deal with virus hot spots are overdue and need to be implemented quickly because Germany risks losing control of the pandemic. She urged opposition lawmakers to support legislation approved by her cabinet mandating restrictions in hard-hit areas as the federal government seeks to override local authorities.

Polish Headache | A Polish dispute over the EU’s pandemic stimulus program escalated after the government unexpectedly canceled plans to discuss its ratification amid a deepening split in the ruling coalition. With Poland in line to gain 58 billion euros from the deal, the divisions in the coalition are turning into a major challenge for de facto leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whose three-party alliance could collapse without approval.

Spain's Recovery | Spain said it will invest 13.2 billion euros to boost electric-vehicle use as the government prepares to deploy the recovery fund to modernize the economy. Electrifying transport is one of 20 flagship investments that Spain plans to make over the next three years using its portion of the EU package. 

Italian Hubs | Italy is in discussions to set up vaccine production hubs in the country using state funding, the nation’s drug regulator said. Efforts to build up domestic capacity come as Mario Draghi raises pressure on drugmakers to accelerate vaccine deliveries.

Data Spat | One of Germany’s toughest data regulators is seeking an administrative order that would stop Facebook from collecting user data from WhatsApp over concerns that policy changes could lead to the use of such data for wider marketing and advertising. The move by the Hamburg regulator comes after confusion and user backlash forced WhatsApp to better explain what data it collects and how it shares that information with its parent company.

Chart of the Day

For Italy’s hotels and restaurants, 2021 is shaping up to be very much like 2020. Sales will barely rebound after last year's 44% pandemic-induced slump, according to a study by Italy’s association of accountants published Tuesday. Overall, foreign tourism revenue shrank 61% in 2020, according to the Bank of Italy, and 2021 promises little improvement, with tourist arrivals down 79% in January compared to a year ago.

Today’s Agenda (All times CET.)

• 9 a.m. ECB VP Luis de Guindos presents the ECB's annual report at the European Parliament
• 11 a.m. EU lower court rules in Ryanair challenges to EU approvals for a covid-related state loan guarantee to Finnair Oyj as well as Swedish and Danish state guarantees to help SAS AB 
• 11 a.m. Eurostat releases industrial production for February
• 11 a.m. Press conference by Commissioner Johannes Hahn on funding strategy to finance the EU's recovery plan
• 1:45 p.m. ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta presents results of public consultations on digital euro to European Parliament
• Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program continue
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at NATO Headquarters 
• Italian government submits economic and budget forecasts to lower house of parliament
• Greek, Turkish foreign ministers meet in Ankara
• WTO meeting with vaccine makers on export restrictions