Europe is about to find out who Giorgia Meloni really is. The leader of Italy's far-right party Brothers of Italy party is poised for a resounding win in Sunday's general election. That would mark a stunning advance from the 4% of votes she garnered in the 2018 national vote. Meloni, 45, who has almost no government experience, has sought to reassure investors and voters that she would govern as a moderate. But a few slips in the final stages of the electoral campaign — including signals that she would try to renegotiate Italy’s plan to spend EU recovery funds — have raised fresh questions. If she wins, she’s expected to begin informal talks on a new government next week, and a key signal will be who she taps to oversee Italy’s fragile finances. Here are some of her options.

— Lyubov Pronina and Chiara Albanese

What’s Happening

Oil Cap | EU member states are racing to clinch a political agreement within weeks that would impose a price cap on Russian oil. The push has gained steam since President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization” of troops and will likely feature as part of a new a package of sanctions to be proposed by the European Commission, people familiar with the plan told us.

Digital Grid | The commission will next week lay out a plan to digitalize its energy grid as it seeks to expand renewables to reduce its dependence on Russian sources. The “Digitalizing the Energy System” action plan will require a 565 billion-euro investment in infrastructure by the end of the decade, according to a draft document we’ve seen.

Energy Measures | Also next week, the commission aims to publish future steps to ease volatility and increase trading volume in energy markets after surging prices led to ballooning margin calls. That’s in addition to measures the bloc could take to reduce fuel prices, according to EU diplomats. But while some member states are calling for a ceiling on the gas price, the commission is unlikely to seek a broad cap, they say.

Coal U-Turn | A U-turn by the EU that’s allowing Russian coal to move more freely has led to uncertainty in insurance and shipping markets whether a key part of the bloc’s oil sanctions could also be watered down. The coal pivot could be important for oil because the bloc has imposed similar measures for crude and other fuels that don’t enter into force until December and February, respectively.

Orban’s Ads | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party will launch an advertising blitz at home against EU energy sanctions, putting the populist leader on a collision course with peers who are readying new restrictions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. At a closed-door ruling party meeting late Wednesday, Orban also for the first time explicitly called for the withdrawal of EU sanctions, newspaper Magyar Nemzet reported.

In Case You Missed It

Reality Check | President Vladimir Putin’s order to call up as many as 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine triggered alarm and demonstrations by Russians forced to confront the reality of the deadly conflict. Police detained about 1,400 people at protests in 38 cities Wednesday night. Google data showed a spike in search requests for “how to leave Russia” and even “how to break an arm.”

Blankets for Bankers | Danish banks are handing out blankets to help staff cope with lower office temperatures introduced as part of a push to cut energy usage. The Nordic country is capping heating at 19 degrees Celsius in government buildings and has encouraged private companies to follow suit amid concern the European energy crisis will lead to blackouts.

More Hikes | The ECB must push on with interest-rate increases despite the souring outlook for the euro-zone economy, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Inflation — already the fastest since the euro was introduced and almost five times the ECB’s 2% target — may not have peaked, she told German news portal t-online.

Green Delay | European banks need to be prepared for risks stemming from a potential delay of the transition to a more sustainable economy as result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to  Anneli Tuominen, a member of the ECB’s supervisory board. The ECB conducted a climate stress test this year and will publish results of a related “thematic review” later this year, she said.

Spanish Gas | Spain completed tests at a natural-gas facility that will boost its export capacity by 18%, paving the way for France to buy more as it reduces its reliance on Russian supplies. More Spanish exports could particularly help France — normally an energy supplier to other parts of Europe — to tackle its own crisis fueled by nuclear outages at home as well as high gas costs.

Chart of the Day

A gauge of euro-area consumer confidence slumped to its lowest on record as households brace for a winter energy crunch and a further acceleration of already soaring inflation. A monthly gauge from the European Commission fell to -28.8 in September. That compared with analyst estimates for a decline to -25.5. Economists say it’s almost inevitable that the 19-nation currency bloc will enter a recession in the coming months, with Russia throttling gas supplies and prices soaring.

Today’s Agenda

• 10 a.m. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Moldovan President Maia Sandu
• 4:15 p.m. EU Council President Charles Michel delivers address at UN General Assembly in New York
• Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni delivers a speech at ‘A New EU, A New World?' seminar, organized by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
• Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders participates in the Informal Ministerial Meeting for Consumer Protection

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