How — and how soon — governments should start phasing out extraordinary fiscal support will dominate discussions among euro-area finance ministers over the coming months, as they seek a balance between an economic rebound and keeping public finances in check. At their virtual meeting today, finance chiefs will discuss these challenges, especially in light of the latest EU economic forecasts, which predicted a slower recovery. Withdrawing support at the moment is out of the question, but the issue of how it will evolve or become more targeted could turn into a key a source of tension. Still, even as their recovery paths and post-pandemic finances vary, each country’s  outlook rests largely on the same factor: the pace and success of the region’s vaccination push.

What’s Happening
Trade Boss | Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is poised to become the first woman and the first African to lead the World Trade Organization. Ahead of the decision due this afternoon, read our profile of “Okonjo the trouble maker,” as the opponents of her crusade against corruption in Nigeria dubbed her. And here’s the draft we got of the EU Commission’s proposals to reform the global trade body.

Catalan Vote | Catalan separatist parties won a majority in the regional parliament after Sunday’s election, while the Socialists of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez are on track to garner the highest number of votes. The outcome of the elections carries special significance for the premier because of his fragile parliamentary majority.

Draghi's Challenge | The incoming Italian government inherits an array of problems, from a pandemic that’s claimed more than 90,000 lives to a debt load at almost 160% of output. For all that, Mario Draghi’s appointment as prime minister puts Rome back among the grown-ups in the EU, our columnist Ferdinando Giugliano writes. Read our profile of Draghi’s finance chief here.

Virus Update | Denmark must prepare to deal with Covid-19 for a long period of time, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned, while Sweden maintained its goal for everyone in the country to be offered vaccination by mid-June. The U.K. has met a key inoculations goal, opening a path to easing lockdowns, and here's why France is losing the vaccine race. Get the latest here.

In Case You Missed It
Valentine Protests | Supporters of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny staged a Valentine’s Day flash mob protest by waving lights. The EU is working on a proposal to sanction Russia over the imprisonment of Navalny, who posted a photo with his wife on Instagram, with the message: “I love you. And all the jokes I make in the courts, I make only for you to laugh in the first row.”

PKK Blamed | Turkey said a Kurdish separatist group executed 13 hostages in Iraq, an account that could bolster Ankara’s campaign to end U.S. support for Kurdish militants in neighboring Syria. Turkey has signaled that it’s prepared to resolve its dispute with NATO allies over the purchase of Russian missiles, if Washington ends its support for the Kurdish militants. The U.S. has rebuffed the idea.

Kosovo Poll | Former Prime Minister Albin Kurti is on course to win snap elections in Kosovo in an outcome that could worsen already tense relations with neighboring Serbia. Although EU enlargement is on the back-burner as the bloc fights Covid-19, any hope of Kosovo joining and integrating with the West rests on mending ties with Belgrade, which still doesn’t recognize its former province’s independence.

Speculative Rally | As Europe and the world grapple with the steepest recession in living memory, markets are going crazy. Exotic investments from bitcoin to penny stocks and from “meme” cryptocurrencies to cannabis companies have surged to all-time highs, fueled by the enthusiasm of novice traders.

Chart of the Day

A year of pandemic prudence is giving way to jumbo deal-making in Europe for deep-pocketed private equity houses. Opportunities stemming from the coronavirus crisis, an abundance of cheap credit and willing sellers looking to clean up and strengthen balance sheets are creating ripe conditions for bigger deals, say bankers covering the sector.

Today’s Agenda
All times CET.

• 11 a.m. Eurostat to publish industrial production and international trade in goods data for December
• 3 p.m. NATO Secretary General briefs press ahead of meeting of Defense Ministers
• 3 p.m. Euro-area finance ministers video conference
• 3 p.m. The WTO holds meeting to confirm Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala's appointment as director general
• French President Macron holds talks with African leaders on the Sahel