Ο οίκος αξιολόγησης Μoody’s αναβάθμισε την αξιολόγηση της καταθετικής βάσης της Ελληνικής Τράπεζας στο B1 από B3, με θετική προοπτική.

Όπως διαπιστώνεται, στην αναβάθμιση αποτυπώνεται ένα ενισχυμένο πιστωτικό προφίλ της Τράπεζας και ειδικότερα τη βελτιωμένη αξιοπιστία της, έχοντας αυξημένες εξασφαλίσεις, ώστε να πορευτεί στο εξαιρετικά δύσκολο οικονομικό περιβάλλον που έχουν δημιουργήσει οι επιπτώσεις της πανδημίας Covid-19.

Η αναβάθμιση στην αξιολόγηση της καταθετικής βάσης της Τράπεζας αντικατοπτρίζει και την εφαρμογή της ελάχιστης εποπτικής απαίτησης ιδίων κεφαλαίων και επιλέξιμων υποχρεώσεων (MREL), η οποία θα εφαρμοστεί τα επόμενα χρόνια και θα αλλάξει τη δομή ευθύνης των τραπεζών, απαιτώντας την αύξηση των εξασφαλίσεων για προστασία των καταθέσεων από ιδία κεφάλαια.

Η θετική προοπτική δείχνει και τις προσδοκίες των Moody’s ότι η Τράπεζα θα συνεχίσει να βελτιώνει το προφίλ της φερεγγυότητάς της, παρά την πιθανή αύξηση των ΜΕΧ εξαιτίας των επιπτώσεων της πανδημίας στο οικονομικό περιβάλλον. Όπως αναφέρεται, το 8% των δανείων της Τράπεζας αφορούν έκθεση στον τουριστικό κλάδο, ο οποίος έχει πληγεί σημαντικά από τις επιπτώσεις της πανδημίας, ωστόσο είναι ενθαρρυντικό ότι το ποσοστό των δανείων της Τράπεζας που αποπληρώνονται και πάλι κανονικά, μετά την άρση του μορατόριουμ ανήλθε στο 95%.

Δεν αποκλείεται η αναβάθμιση των αξιολογήσεων τα επόμενα τρίμηνα

Να σημειώσουμε πως στα επόμενα τρίμηνα δεν αποκλείεται η αναβάθμιση των αξιολογήσεων εάν, η Τράπεζα διατηρήσει την ισχυρή κεφαλαιακή της βάση και ρευστότητα, περιοριστεί ο αντίκτυπος της πανδημίας στην κυπριακή οικονομία και η Τράπεζα βελτιώσει περαιτέρω την ποιότητα των περιουσιακών της στοιχείων, με όλα τα μέσα, ακόμα και με πώληση κάποιων στοιχείων.

Πιο κάτω αυτούσια η ανακοίνωση, την οποία μπορείτε να βρείτε και στην ιστοσελίδα www.moodys.com

Αυτούσια η ανακοίνωση του Οίκου Moody's γαι την Ελληνική Τράπεζα:
The upgrade of Hellenic Bank's ratings and assessments primarily reflects the upgrade of its BCA and Adjusted BCA to b3, from caa1, as well as the impact of its evolving liability structure.

Hellenic Bank's stronger BCA reflects its strengthened overall solvency profile, more specifically its strong capital metrics and profitable operations, combined with improving asset quality. Hellenic Bank has maintained its strong capital buffers, with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 20.2% as of March 2021, well above its 9.55% regulatory minimum, and has remained profitable during 2020, despite higher loan loss provisions due to the pandemic. The bank has also managed to reduced its NPEs to 22.4% as of March 2021, from 31.4% as of December 2019, primarily because of write-offs of around €0.6 billion of legacy NPEs in 2020 and also as a result of two small NPE sales with a gross book value of €52 million that are pending relevant approvals. The bank's NPEs/gross loans is lower, at 15.8%, if we were to exclude the NPEs that are guaranteed by the government.

Hellenic Bank's improved overall solvency profile better positions it to deal with the inflow of new NPEs arising from the coronavirus-induced economic downturn. Downside risks related to potential new NPE formation remain elevated, due to the fluidity of the pandemic and Cyprus' exposure to the tourism sector that contributes 8% of the bank's gross loans. According to Moody's early signs are however encouraging as 95% of loans, excluding loan with government guarantees, under expired payment deferrals with at least one loan instalment payment due by April 2021, had no arrears.

The upgrade of Hellenic Bank's deposit ratings also reflects the bank's upcoming MREL-eligible debt issuances, that the rating agency expects will enhance the buffers that are available to protect depositors. Moody's expects the bank to issue its first debt instrument that complies with the Single Resolution Board's MREL requirement later in 2021. The bank will need to issue debt equivalent to at least 5% of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs), to meet its binding minimum MREL requirement of 24.1% of RWA by year-end 2025.

Hellenic Bank's B1 deposit ratings are now placed two notches above its BCA, from one notch above the BCA previously, driven by the increased protection that the rating agency expects will be afforded to depositors from more loss-absorbing junior securities. The ratings capture our banking methodology, under our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis as it is applied to countries subject to the EU's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, such as Cyprus.

The positive outlook on the long-term deposit ratings reflects Moody's expectation that Hellenic Bank will continue to reduce NPEs further to below 10%, while maintaining capital and liquidity buffers well above regulatory minimums. Hellenic Bank has recently shown signs of improvements in its ability to organically reduce NPEs while a strong capital position also provides flexibility to the bank to seek inorganic NPE sales.

The positive outlook also reflects Moody's view that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Cypriot economy is unlikely to leave any lasting damage. This may lead Moody's to reassess its outlook on the operating environment and Cyprus' macro profile score in the next few years, which would also lead Moody's to consider a lower portion of the bank's liabilities at a risk of loss in a resolution.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

All of the banks' ratings could be upgraded if they manage to further improve their asset quality with a reduction in the NPE ratio to below 10%, while maintaining solid capital metrics, and if Moody's concludes that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Cypriot economy will not leave any lasting damage. The banks' ratings may also be upgraded following the buildup of larger loss-absorption buffers following Moody's expectations of changes to the banks' liability structure or if the rating agency concludes that a lower portion of the banks' liabilities are at a risk of loss in a resolution.

The positive outlook on the banks' deposit ratings may be changed to stable if the rating agency expects the banks to experience a significant weakening in their capital and overall solvency profiles, possibly as a consequence of a prolonged economic disruption because of the pandemic.